A study published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences finds that experts are little better than novices in predicting the outcome of conflicts. Researchers compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices in eight real conflicts and found that neither group's forecasts were much more accurate than simply guessing. Although the experts were confident in the accuracy of their forecasts, the study's authors concluded that expert judgment should not be used for predicting decisions that people will make in conflicts. (HULIQ.com; Report and Commentary; INFORMS.) (Despite the title of the study, "The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," there is no discussion of ombuds as dispute experts.)
This research gives ombuds one more excuse when pressed for an opinion: "My guess is a good as yours."
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